GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsWhat's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) BOIS
Home-field edge BOIS
Model projection BOIS
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Texas State @ Boise State
Your sims:Sims: BOIS 0, TXST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Texas State
Wvs Colorado State66–27Lat San Diego State31–29Wvs Incarnate Word63–10
Boise State
Wat Fresno State38–31Wvs Utah State37–18Wat Western Michigan32–7
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelBOIS 79%MarketBOIS 75%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $0 traded · as of Oct 20, 1:40 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Texas State vs Boise State Stats ComparisonTexas State vs Boise State Stats Comparison
| Texas StateTXST | Boise StateBOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 40#9 | PPG | 35#37 |
| 32.2#122 | PA/G | 22.3#58 |
| 562.3#1 | YDS/G | 450.5#27 |
| 258.8#40 | PASS/G | 216#85 |
| 303.5#3 | RUSH/G | 234.5#9 |
| 7.2#7 | YDS/PLAY | 6.4#37 |
| 55.4%#5 | 3RD DOWN | 50.0%#17 |
| 0.29#15 | OFF PPA | 0.32#11 |
| 0.11#84 | DEF PPA | 0.06#64 |
| 50.9%#8 | OFF SUCCESS | 48.8%#20 |
| 43.8%#111 | DEF SUCCESS | 37.0%#35 |
| 76.0% | RET PROD | 66.3% |
| 1.31#29 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22#75 |
| 1567 | ELO | 1691 |
| 7.3 | SRS | 11.9 |
| −5#121 | TO MARGIN | +3#33 |
| -0.2 | SP+ | 9.1 |
| -0.1#70 | FPI | 11.4#30 |
THE VENUE
Albertsons StadiumLocationBoise, ID
Capacity36,387
SurfaceTurf
Opened1970
Elevation2,701 ft
FAN NEWS
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