GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Boise State a 78% chance.
SeriesBoise State leads 13–1 · Boise State won the last meeting, 49–21 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) BOIS
Home-field edge CSU
Model projection BOIS
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Boise State @ Colorado State
Your sims:Sims: CSU 0, BOIS 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Boise State
Wat Fresno State38–31Wvs Utah State37–18Wat Western Michigan32–7
Colorado State
Lat Texas State66–27Lvs Oregon State56–26Lat UTSA59–45
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Boise State vs Colorado State Stats ComparisonBoise State vs CSU Stats Comparison
| Boise StateBOIS | Colorado StateCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 35#37 | PPG | 35.7#29 |
| 22.3#58 | PA/G | 43.2#138 |
| 450.5#27 | YDS/G | 445.3#34 |
| 216#85 | PASS/G | 274.8#26 |
| 234.5#9 | RUSH/G | 170.5#53 |
| 6.4#37 | YDS/PLAY | 6.6#23 |
| 50.0%#17 | 3RD DOWN | 43.5%#46 |
| +3#33 | TO MARGIN | +8#6 |
| 0.32#11 | OFF PPA | 0.22#35 |
| 0.06#64 | DEF PPA | 0.29#134 |
| 48.8%#20 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.9%#63 |
| 37.0%#35 | DEF SUCCESS | 53.1%#138 |
| 66.3% | RET PROD | 39.6% |
| 1.22#75 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.45#2 |
| 1691 | ELO | 1155 |
| 9.1 | SP+ | -7.8 |
| 11.4#30 | FPI | -12.6#113 |
| 11.9 | SRS | -7.2 |
THE VENUE
Canvas StadiumLocationFort Collins, CO
Capacity36,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened2017
Elevation5,014 ft
FAN NEWS
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