GAME DAY
Week 11 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Boise State a 81% chance.
SeriesOregon State leads 6–5 · Boise State won the last meeting, 34–18 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) BOIS
Home-field edge BOIS
Model projection BOIS
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Oregon State @ Boise State
Your sims:Sims: BOIS 0, ORST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Oregon State
Oregon State2025: 2–10 (1–1 PAC)
Lat Washington State32–8Lat Tulsa31–14Lvs Sam Houston21–17Oregon State2025: 2–10 (1–1 PAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Oregon State vs Boise State Stats ComparisonOregon State vs Boise State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Oregon StateORST | Boise StateBOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 18.2#125 | PPG | 29.9#46 |
| 29.4#98 | PA/G | 24.1#61 |
| 352.7#95 | YDS/G | 424.3#24 |
| 225.4#66 | PASS/G | 244.9#51 |
| 127.2#103 | RUSH/G | 179.4#38 |
| 5.1#111 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#55 |
| 35.9%#102 | 3RD DOWN | 45.8%#26 |
| 0.06#120 | OFF PPA | 0.17#60 |
| 0.18#87 | DEF PPA | 0.10#42 |
| 42.4%#67 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.9%#86 |
| 38.8%#38 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.3%#8 |
| 57.9% | RET PROD | 66.3% |
| 1.07#135 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.30#36 |
| −10#123 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| -5.6 | SP+ | 5.1 |
| -8.1#98 | FPI | 4.0#50 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Albertsons StadiumLocationBoise, ID
Capacity36,387
SurfaceTurf
Opened1970
Elevation2,701 ft
FAN NEWS
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