GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
James Madison opens a 6.5-point favorite. Our model gives James Madison a 69% chance.
SeriesJames Madison leads 5–1 · James Madison won the last meeting, 31–13 · 2025
69% One-score game
36% Cover JMU −6.5
54%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: JMU 0, LIB 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Liberty2025: 4–8 (3–5 CUSA)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
James Madison70%- Liberty32%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $20,810 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Liberty vs James Madison Stats ComparisonLiberty vs JMU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| LibertyLIB | James MadisonJMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.6#83 | PPG | 37.1#9 |
| 26.5#76 | PA/G | 18.4#13 |
| 388.5#70 | YDS/G | 454.9#15 |
| 195.5#101 | PASS/G | 211.1#88 |
| 193#26 | RUSH/G | 243.7#6 |
| 5.7#65 | YDS/PLAY | 6.5#21 |
| 40.1%#65 | 3RD DOWN | 46.7%#17 |
| 0.17#67 | OFF PPA | 0.23#31 |
| 0.20#105 | DEF PPA | 0.00#6 |
| 43.5%#51 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.2%#36 |
| 41.5%#68 | DEF SUCCESS | 30.1%#1 |
| 38.3% | RET PROD | 8.0% |
| 1.21#92 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.30#37 |
| −7#112 | TO MARGIN | +1#66 |
| -5.3 | SP+ | -0.9 |
| -7.7#96 | FPI | -2.0#75 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
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