GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Toledo opens a 3-point favorite. Our model gives Toledo a 58% chance.
SeriesToledo leads 39–24 · Western Michigan won the last meeting, 14–13 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) TOL
Home-field edge TOL
Market lean TOL
Model projection TOL
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Western Michigan @ Toledo
Your sims:Sims: TOL 0, WMU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Western Michigan
Wat Central Michigan21–14Wvs Kent State38–7Wat Buffalo20–17
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelTOL 58%MarketTOL 59%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $932 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADWMU +3TOL −3
TOTALOver 45.5Under 45.5
MONEYLINEWMU +130TOL −155
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Western Michigan vs Toledo Stats ComparisonWMU vs Toledo Stats Comparison
| Western MichiganWMU | ToledoTOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 25#90 | PPG | 36.3#28 |
| 16.9#25 | PA/G | 23.6#69 |
| 322.3#121 | YDS/G | 459#20 |
| 157.6#129 | PASS/G | 273.4#27 |
| 164.7#59 | RUSH/G | 185.6#41 |
| 5.4#104 | YDS/PLAY | 6.7#20 |
| 44.8%#39 | 3RD DOWN | 43.6%#46 |
| 0.15#68 | OFF PPA | 0.23#33 |
| 42.8%#79 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.6%#68 |
| 43.2%#104 | DEF SUCCESS | 32.9%#3 |
| 99.7% | RET PROD | 66.3% |
| 1.12#122 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.38#14 |
| 1486 | ELO | 1548 |
| +4#22 | TO MARGIN | +0#70 |
| 0.05#59 | DEF PPA | -0.03#28 |
| -3.2 | SP+ | -2.1 |
| -2.5#81 | FPI | -3.4#84 |
| -1.6 | SRS | -0.8 |
THE VENUE
Glass BowlLocationToledo, OH
Capacity26,038
SurfaceTurf
Opened1937
Elevation595 ft
FAN NEWS
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