WHAT THE MODEL IS
Numbers labeled "CFB Vibes Model" are our own computation. For each matchup the model sets an expected margin from the strongest signal available to it: published team power ratings (early in a season, the prior season's ratings stand in until current ones exist), betting market consensus, and prediction-market prices. The game is then simulated thousands of times around that expectation, and the win percentages you see are the share of those runs each team wins.
WHEN WE SHOW NOTHING
If none of those signals can honestly price a game, we show nothing for it. An empty slot is a true statement; a plausible-looking guess is not. The same rule applies across the site: data we cannot vouch for does not render.
HOW IT HAS DONE
Every prediction is frozen at kickoff and graded after the final, and the running tally is public: see the model track record for the season's straight-up record, Brier score and coverage, game by game.
WHAT IT IS NOT
The model is for fans. It is not betting advice, it is not a prediction of what any market will do, and market prices shown alongside it belong to their markets, not to us. See the Terms of Service for the full disclaimers, and Prediction Markets 101 for how market prices work.
SOURCES & CORRECTIONS
Every input above is listed on the data sources page. If a number looks wrong, the corrections page explains how to tell us and what we do about it.