GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Marshall a 67% chance.
SeriesMissouri State leads 1–0 · Missouri State won the last meeting, 21–20 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) MRSH
Home-field edge MOST
Model projection MRSH
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Marshall @ Missouri State
Your sims:Sims: MOST 0, MRSH 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Marshall
Marshall2025: 5–7 (3–5 SBC)
Lvs Georgia Southern24–19Lat App State26–24Wat Georgia State30–18Marshall2025: 5–7 (3–5 SBC)Missouri State
Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)
Lvs Arkansas State34–28Lvs Louisiana Tech42–30Lat Kennesaw State41–34Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Marshall vs Missouri State Stats ComparisonMarshall vs MOST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| MarshallMRSH | Missouri StateMOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.8#37 | PPG | 25.6#83 |
| 30.2#106 | PA/G | 28.8#91 |
| 406.1#47 | YDS/G | 393.4#64 |
| 207.9#91 | PASS/G | 279.7#16 |
| 198.2#21 | RUSH/G | 113.7#118 |
| 5.9#46 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 35.2%#106 | 3RD DOWN | 36.3%#101 |
| 0.16#72 | OFF PPA | 0.17#66 |
| 0.16#73 | DEF PPA | 0.24#122 |
| 43.9%#47 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.3%#110 |
| 38.6%#35 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.6%#87 |
| 98.8% | RET PROD | 31.3% |
| 1.13#130 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.49#2 |
| +6#27 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
| -8.2 | SP+ | -19.1 |
| -8.8#104 | FPI | -10.3#110 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Plaster Sports ComplexLocationSpringfield, MO
Capacity17,337
SurfaceTurf
Opened1941
Elevation1,320 ft
FAN NEWS
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