GAME DAY
Week 4 · TBDMOST radioBears Sports Network
SMU radioSMU Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives SMU a 98% chance.
SeriesSMU leads 1–0 · SMU won the last meeting, 28–10 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) SMU
Home-field edge SMU
Model projection SMU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Missouri State @ SMU
Your sims:Sims: SMU 0, MOST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Missouri State
Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)
Lvs Arkansas State34–28Lvs Louisiana Tech42–30Lat Kennesaw State41–34Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Missouri State vs SMU Stats ComparisonMOST vs SMU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Missouri StateMOST | SMUSMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.6#83 | PPG | 32.2#26 |
| 28.8#91 | PA/G | 20.5#30 |
| 393.4#64 | YDS/G | 417#30 |
| 279.7#16 | PASS/G | 283.1#14 |
| 113.7#118 | RUSH/G | 133.9#95 |
| 6#38 | YDS/PLAY | 6.3#24 |
| 36.3%#101 | 3RD DOWN | 40.8%#56 |
| 0.17#66 | OFF PPA | 0.25#22 |
| 0.24#122 | DEF PPA | 0.03#11 |
| 39.3%#110 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.3%#54 |
| 42.6%#87 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.6%#47 |
| 31.3% | RET PROD | 56.9% |
| 1.49#2 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.37#10 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | +9#14 |
| -19.1 | SP+ | 12.1 |
| -10.3#110 | FPI | 11.1#24 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Gerald J. Ford StadiumLocationUniversity Park, TX
Capacity32,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened2000
Elevation556 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Missouri State or SMU?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 4 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
