GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Delaware opens a 3-point favorite. Our model gives Delaware a 58% chance.
SeriesNo meetings since 2003
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
DEL win
58% One-score game
40% Cover DEL −3
50%
58% One-score game
40% Cover DEL −3
50%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) DEL
Home-field edge DEL
Market lean DEL
Model projection DEL
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Missouri State @ Delaware
Your sims:Sims: DEL 0, MOST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Missouri State
Wvs Kennesaw State24–21Lat Western Kentucky34–13Lat SMU34–24
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelDEL 58%MarketDEL 59%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $23,058 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMOST +3DEL −3
TOTALOver 52.5Under 52.5
MONEYLINEMOST +130DEL −155
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Missouri State vs Delaware Stats ComparisonMOST vs Delaware Stats Comparison
| Missouri StateMOST | DelawareDEL | |
|---|---|---|
| 22.2#108 | PPG | 22.8#103 |
| 30.5#116 | PA/G | 26.8#97 |
| 359.5#95 | YDS/G | 365#88 |
| 224.7#76 | PASS/G | 271#29 |
| 134.8#102 | RUSH/G | 94#135 |
| 5.6#86 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#86 |
| 35.1%#109 | 3RD DOWN | 31.6%#124 |
| 0.06#102 | OFF PPA | 0.04#109 |
| 0.22#125 | DEF PPA | 0.11#86 |
| 39.6%#108 | OFF SUCCESS | 38.5%#121 |
| 49.3%#134 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.3%#63 |
| 31.3% | RET PROD | 84.9% |
| 1.23#70 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.28#40 |
| 1233 | ELO | 1325 |
| −1#82 | TO MARGIN | +0#70 |
| -19.5 | SP+ | -13.1 |
| -14.7#123 | FPI | -14.1#120 |
| -15.6 | SRS | -14.5 |
THE VENUE
Delaware StadiumLocationNewark, DE
Capacity22,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1952
Elevation94 ft
FAN NEWS
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