GAME DAY
Week 5 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Western Kentucky a 67% chance.
SeriesWestern Kentucky leads 2–1 · Western Kentucky won the last meeting, 35–16 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
NMSU win
33% One-score game
37%
33% One-score game
37%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) WKU
Home-field edge NMSU
Model projection WKU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico St
Your sims:Sims: NMSU 0, WKU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat Florida State34–17New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State Stats ComparisonWKU vs NMSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Western KentuckyWKU | New Mexico StateNMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.5#49 | PPG | 21.6#111 |
| 22.8#47 | PA/G | 27.6#88 |
| 406.8#45 | YDS/G | 327.8#115 |
| 272.2#22 | PASS/G | 250.3#45 |
| 134.6#94 | RUSH/G | 77.4#136 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 4.8#127 |
| 45.9%#24 | 3RD DOWN | 41.7%#45 |
| 0.17#70 | OFF PPA | 0.03#128 |
| 0.10#39 | DEF PPA | 0.10#41 |
| 43.4%#53 | OFF SUCCESS | 36.4%#124 |
| 36.4%#15 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.9%#72 |
| 83.7% | RET PROD | 24.4% |
| 1.20#95 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25#58 |
| −7#112 | TO MARGIN | −1#77 |
| -7.3 | SP+ | -18.5 |
| -4.9#86 | FPI | -15.7#129 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Aggie Memorial StadiumLocationLas Cruces, NM
Capacity28,853
SurfaceTurf
Opened1978
Elevation3,964 ft
FAN NEWS
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