GAME DAY
Week 10 · ·LIB radioLiberty Flames Sports Network
NMSU radioAggie Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Liberty a 84% chance.
SeriesLiberty leads 7–2 · Liberty won the last meeting, 30–27 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) LIB
Home-field edge NMSU
Model projection LIB
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Liberty @ New Mexico State
Your sims:Sims: NMSU 0, LIB 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
New Mexico State
Lat Florida International22–3Wvs Western Kentucky34–13Lvs New Mexico42–18
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Liberty vs New Mexico State Stats ComparisonLiberty vs NMSU Stats Comparison
| LibertyLIB | New Mexico StateNMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 31.2#58 | PPG | 23.7#97 |
| 15.3#15 | PA/G | 25.7#88 |
| 415.8#52 | YDS/G | 368.5#85 |
| 192.8#105 | PASS/G | 225.8#74 |
| 223#15 | RUSH/G | 142.7#90 |
| 6.5#28 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#70 |
| 45.2%#35 | 3RD DOWN | 41.0%#70 |
| 0.17#59 | OFF PPA | 0.02#116 |
| 48.0%#28 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.8%#94 |
| 34.1%#10 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.0%#59 |
| 38.3% | RET PROD | 24.4% |
| 1.13#117 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.38#13 |
| 1746 | ELO | 1249 |
| +3#33 | TO MARGIN | −5#120 |
| -0.04#18 | DEF PPA | 0.05#61 |
| 7.3 | SP+ | -13.7 |
| 0.7#64 | FPI | -13.2#116 |
| 2.7 | SRS | -13.4 |
THE VENUE
Aggie Memorial StadiumLocationLas Cruces, NM
Capacity28,853
SurfaceTurf
Opened1978
Elevation3,964 ft
FAN NEWS
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