GAME DAY
Week 11 · ·TVCBSSN
StreamingParamount+
MTSU radioBlue Raider Sports Network
LIB radioLiberty Flames Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Liberty a 94% chance.
SeriesLiberty leads 3–0 · Liberty won the last meeting, 37–17 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) LIB
Home-field edge LIB
Model projection LIB
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Middle Tennessee @ Liberty
Your sims:Sims: LIB 0, MTSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)
Wat New Mexico State31–24 (OT)Wvs Sam Houston31–17Lat Western Kentucky42–26Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)Liberty
Liberty2025: 4–8 (3–5 CUSA)
Lvs Kennesaw State48–42 (OT)Lat Louisiana Tech34–28 (OT)Lat Florida International34–27 (OT)Liberty2025: 4–8 (3–5 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty Stats ComparisonMTSU vs Liberty Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Middle TennesseeMTSU | LibertyLIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 22.4#107 | PPG | 25.6#83 |
| 30.9#115 | PA/G | 26.5#76 |
| 371#82 | YDS/G | 388.5#70 |
| 264.9#28 | PASS/G | 195.5#101 |
| 106.1#121 | RUSH/G | 193#26 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| 37.1%#93 | 3RD DOWN | 40.1%#65 |
| 0.14#85 | OFF PPA | 0.17#67 |
| 0.21#111 | DEF PPA | 0.20#105 |
| 42.2%#70 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.5%#51 |
| 44.1%#104 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.5%#68 |
| 32.5% | RET PROD | 38.3% |
| 1.22#78 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#92 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | −7#112 |
| -26.5 | SP+ | -5.3 |
| -16.1#130 | FPI | -7.7#96 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Williams Stadium (VA)LocationLynchburg, VA
Capacity25,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1989
Elevation895 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Middle Tennessee or Liberty?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 11 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
