GAME DAY
Week 11 · ·NMSU radioAggie Sports Network
MOST radioBears Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives New Mexico State a 55% chance.
SeriesMissouri State leads 1–0 · Missouri State won the last meeting, 24–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NMSU
Home-field edge MOST
Model projection NMSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
New Mexico St @ Missouri St
Your sims:Sims: MOST 0, NMSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
Lat Florida International22–3Wvs Western Kentucky34–13Lvs New Mexico42–18
Missouri State
Wvs Kennesaw State24–21Lat Western Kentucky34–13Lat SMU34–24
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
New Mexico State vs Missouri State Stats ComparisonNMSU vs MOST Stats Comparison
| New Mexico StateNMSU | Missouri StateMOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 23.7#97 | PPG | 22.2#108 |
| 25.7#88 | PA/G | 30.5#116 |
| 368.5#85 | YDS/G | 359.5#95 |
| 225.8#74 | PASS/G | 224.7#76 |
| 142.7#90 | RUSH/G | 134.8#102 |
| 5.8#70 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#86 |
| 41.0%#70 | 3RD DOWN | 35.1%#109 |
| 0.02#116 | OFF PPA | 0.06#102 |
| 0.05#61 | DEF PPA | 0.22#125 |
| 40.8%#94 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.6%#108 |
| 40.0%#59 | DEF SUCCESS | 49.3%#134 |
| 24.4% | RET PROD | 31.3% |
| 1.38#13 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.23#70 |
| 1249 | ELO | 1233 |
| −5#120 | TO MARGIN | −1#82 |
| -13.7 | SP+ | -19.5 |
| -13.2#116 | FPI | -14.7#123 |
| -13.4 | SRS | -15.6 |
THE VENUE
Plaster Sports ComplexLocationSpringfield, MO
Capacity17,337
SurfaceTurf
Opened1941
Elevation1,320 ft
FAN NEWS
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