GAME DAY
Week 11 · ·NMSU radioAggie Sports Network
MOST radioBears Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Missouri State a 57% chance.
SeriesMissouri State leads 1–0 · Missouri State won the last meeting, 24–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NMSU
Home-field edge MOST
Model projection MOST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
New Mexico St @ Missouri St
Your sims:Sims: MOST 0, NMSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat Florida State34–17New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
New Mexico State vs Missouri State Stats ComparisonNMSU vs MOST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| New Mexico StateNMSU | Missouri StateMOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 21.6#111 | PPG | 25.6#83 |
| 27.6#88 | PA/G | 28.8#91 |
| 327.8#115 | YDS/G | 393.4#64 |
| 250.3#45 | PASS/G | 279.7#16 |
| 77.4#136 | RUSH/G | 113.7#118 |
| 4.8#127 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 41.7%#45 | 3RD DOWN | 36.3%#101 |
| 0.03#128 | OFF PPA | 0.17#66 |
| 0.10#41 | DEF PPA | 0.24#122 |
| 36.4%#124 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.3%#110 |
| 41.9%#72 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.6%#87 |
| 24.4% | RET PROD | 31.3% |
| 1.25#58 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.49#2 |
| −1#77 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
| -18.5 | SP+ | -19.1 |
| -15.7#129 | FPI | -10.3#110 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Plaster Sports ComplexLocationSpringfield, MO
Capacity17,337
SurfaceTurf
Opened1941
Elevation1,320 ft
FAN NEWS
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