GAME DAY
Week 13 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives South Alabama a 55% chance.
SeriesApp State leads 4–2 · South Alabama won the last meeting, 48–14 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) APP
Home-field edge USA
Model projection USA
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
App State @ South Alabama
Your sims:Sims: USA 0, APP 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3App State
App State2025: 5–8 (2–6 SBC)
Lvs Georgia Southern29–10Lvs Arkansas State30–29Wvs Marshall26–24App State2025: 5–8 (2–6 SBC)South Alabama
South Alabama2025: 4–8 (3–5 SBC)
Lat Texas State49–26Wvs Southern Miss42–35Wat UL Monroe26–14South Alabama2025: 4–8 (3–5 SBC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
App State vs South Alabama Stats ComparisonApp State vs USA Stats Comparison
2025 stats| App StateAPP | South AlabamaUSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 24.2#91 | PPG | 26.5#76 |
| 29.8#101 | PA/G | 30.4#110 |
| 384.9#71 | YDS/G | 382.2#75 |
| 256.5#34 | PASS/G | 181.1#114 |
| 128.4#102 | RUSH/G | 201.2#18 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.5#81 |
| 32.8%#123 | 3RD DOWN | 42.6%#39 |
| 0.10#107 | OFF PPA | 0.16#74 |
| 0.18#86 | DEF PPA | 0.24#120 |
| 40.9%#86 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.8%#76 |
| 44.8%#115 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.3%#94 |
| 37.9% | RET PROD | 78.6% |
| 1.19#104 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#98 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | +3#46 |
| -12.7 | SP+ | -14.6 |
| -9.8#109 | FPI | -10.5#112 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Hancock Whitney StadiumLocationMobile, AL
Capacity25,450
SurfaceTurf
Opened2020
Elevation148 ft
FAN NEWS
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