GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
SMU opens a 3-point favorite. Our model gives SMU a 58% chance.
SeriesSMU leads 1–0 · SMU won the last meeting, 42–16 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) SMU
Home-field edge FSU
Market lean SMU
Model projection SMU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
SMU @ Florida State
Your sims:Sims: FSU 0, SMU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Florida State
Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs New Mexico State34–17Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADSMU −3FSU +3
TOTALOver 52.5Under 52.5
MONEYLINESMU −162FSU +136
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
SMU vs Florida State Stats ComparisonSMU vs FSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| SMUSMU | Florida StateFSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 32.2#26 | PPG | 33#22 |
| 20.5#30 | PA/G | 22#43 |
| 417#30 | YDS/G | 472.2#6 |
| 283.1#14 | PASS/G | 253.4#40 |
| 133.9#95 | RUSH/G | 218.8#11 |
| 6.3#24 | YDS/PLAY | 6.7#13 |
| 40.8%#56 | 3RD DOWN | 50.6%#8 |
| 0.25#22 | OFF PPA | 0.30#14 |
| 0.03#11 | DEF PPA | 0.15#63 |
| 43.3%#54 | OFF SUCCESS | 47.2%#17 |
| 39.6%#47 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.5%#55 |
| 56.9% | RET PROD | 40.1% |
| 1.37#10 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.36#16 |
| 12.1 | SP+ | 9.1 |
| 11.1#24 | FPI | 9.3#28 |
| +9#14 | TO MARGIN | −5#103 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Doak Campbell StadiumLocationTallahassee, FL
Capacity67,277
SurfaceGrass
Opened1950
Elevation64 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about SMU or Florida State?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
