GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·AlabamaALA0–0·SEC
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Alabama opens a 15.5-point favorite. Our model gives Alabama a 84% chance.
SeriesAlabama leads 3–2–1 · Florida State won the last meeting, 31–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Home-field edge ALA
Market lean ALA
Model projection ALA
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Florida State @ Alabama
Your sims:Sims: ALA 0, FSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Florida State
Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs New Mexico State34–17Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADFSU +15.5ALA −15.5
TOTALOver 52.5Under 52.5
MONEYLINEFSU +440ALA −600
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Florida State vs Alabama Stats ComparisonFSU vs Alabama Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Florida StateFSU | AlabamaALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 33#22 | PPG | 29.5#49 |
| 22#43 | PA/G | 19.2#20 |
| 472.2#6 | YDS/G | 367.7#84 |
| 253.4#40 | PASS/G | 263.5#29 |
| 218.8#11 | RUSH/G | 104.2#127 |
| 6.7#13 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#74 |
| 50.6%#8 | 3RD DOWN | 41.7%#45 |
| 0.30#14 | OFF PPA | 0.21#37 |
| 0.15#63 | DEF PPA | 0.07#28 |
| 47.2%#17 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.3%#54 |
| 40.5%#55 | DEF SUCCESS | 37.4%#21 |
| 40.1% | RET PROD | 26.4% |
| 1.36#16 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.27#48 |
| 9.1 | SP+ | 17.6 |
| 9.3#28 | FPI | 20.1#8 |
| −5#103 | TO MARGIN | +7#21 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Bryant-Denny StadiumLocationTuscaloosa, AL
Capacity101,821
SurfaceGrass
Opened1929
Elevation230 ft
FAN NEWS
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