GAME DAY
Week 8 · · Watch College Football live with Fubo for $0 TodayWatch free on ▸ (opens in a new tab)
Terms & eligibility
Your location determines what plans and channels are available to you.
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
New Mexico State opens a 3-point favorite. Our model gives New Mexico State a 55% chance.
SeriesNew Mexico State leads 2–1 · New Mexico State won the last meeting, 37–10 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
SHSU win
45% One-score game
40% Cover NMSU −3
48%
45% One-score game
40% Cover NMSU −3
48%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) NMSU
Home-field edge SHSU
Market lean NMSU
Model projection NMSU
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston
Your sims:Sims: SHSU 0, NMSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
Lat Florida International22–3Wvs Western Kentucky34–13Lvs New Mexico42–18
Sam Houston
Lvs Western Kentucky16–3Lat Liberty35–3Lat Texas Tech49–14
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelNMSU 55%MarketNMSU 56%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $110,108 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADNMSU −3SHSU +3
TOTALOver 44.5Under 44.5
MONEYLINENMSU −148SHSU +124
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Stats ComparisonNMSU vs Sam Houston Stats Comparison
| New Mexico StateNMSU | Sam HoustonSHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 23.7#97 | PPG | 19.5#123 |
| 25.7#88 | PA/G | 24.5#76 |
| 368.5#85 | YDS/G | 342#107 |
| 225.8#74 | PASS/G | 247#51 |
| 142.7#90 | RUSH/G | 95#134 |
| 5.8#70 | YDS/PLAY | 5.2#114 |
| 41.0%#70 | 3RD DOWN | 37.2%#89 |
| 0.05#61 | DEF PPA | 0.11#84 |
| 40.8%#94 | OFF SUCCESS | 38.7%#118 |
| 40.0%#59 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.6%#57 |
| 24.4% | RET PROD | 57.7% |
| 1.38#13 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.26#53 |
| 1249 | ELO | 1104 |
| −5#120 | TO MARGIN | +1#61 |
| 0.02#116 | OFF PPA | -0.00#122 |
| -13.7 | SP+ | -16.5 |
| -13.2#116 | FPI | -16.7#127 |
| -13.4 | SRS | -12.2 |
THE VENUE
Elliott T. Bowers StadiumLocationHuntsville, TX
Capacity14,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1986
Elevation419 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about New Mexico State or Sam Houston?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 8 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
