GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Jacksonville State a 67% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 1–1 · Jacksonville State won the last meeting, 54–13 · 2024
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
NMSU win
33% One-score game
36%
33% One-score game
36%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) JXST
Home-field edge NMSU
Model projection JXST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Jacksonville St @ New Mexico St
Your sims:Sims: NMSU 0, JXST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Jacksonville State
Wvs Florida International27–24Wat Kennesaw State27–26Wvs Middle Tennessee23–13
New Mexico State
Lat Florida International22–3Wvs Western Kentucky34–13Lvs New Mexico42–18
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelJXST 67%MarketJXST 52%
Market 15 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $8 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State Stats ComparisonJXST vs NMSU Stats Comparison
| Jacksonville StateJXST | New Mexico StateNMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 27.3#82 | PPG | 23.7#97 |
| 22.7#61 | PA/G | 25.7#88 |
| 390.6#70 | YDS/G | 368.5#85 |
| 240.4#57 | PASS/G | 225.8#74 |
| 150.1#82 | RUSH/G | 142.7#90 |
| 6.4#37 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#70 |
| 46.3%#30 | 3RD DOWN | 41.0%#70 |
| 0.18#54 | OFF PPA | 0.02#116 |
| 0.08#74 | DEF PPA | 0.05#61 |
| 46.9%#40 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.8%#94 |
| 41.9%#87 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.0%#59 |
| 49.5% | RET PROD | 24.4% |
| 1.19#90 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.38#13 |
| 1430 | ELO | 1249 |
| −4#111 | TO MARGIN | −5#120 |
| -2.4 | SP+ | -13.7 |
| -8.3#97 | FPI | -13.2#116 |
| -7.4 | SRS | -13.4 |
THE VENUE
Aggie Memorial StadiumLocationLas Cruces, NM
Capacity28,853
SurfaceTurf
Opened1978
Elevation3,964 ft
FAN NEWS
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