GAME DAY
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Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
UCLA opens a 14-point favorite. Our model gives UCLA a 84% chance.
SeriesUCLA leads 4–3 · UCLA won the last meeting, 38–13 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
UCLA win
84% One-score game
26% Cover UCLA −14
55%
84% One-score game
26% Cover UCLA −14
55%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) UCLA
Home-field edge UCLA
Market lean UCLA
Model projection UCLA
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Michigan State @ UCLA
Your sims:Sims: UCLA 0, MSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Michigan State
Lvs Northwestern24–21Lvs Illinois38–37 (OT)Lat Wisconsin31–3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUCLA 84%MarketUCLA 84%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $12,680 traded · as of Oct 20, 6:20 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMSU +14UCLA −14
TOTALOver 44.5Under 44.5
MONEYLINEMSU +455UCLA −625
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Michigan State vs UCLA Stats ComparisonMSU vs UCLA Stats Comparison
| Michigan StateMSU | UCLAUCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 21.3#113 | PPG | 35.5#33 |
| 25.4#82 | PA/G | 16.2#21 |
| 310.7#128 | YDS/G | 445.8#33 |
| 191.6#107 | PASS/G | 214.8#87 |
| 119.1#119 | RUSH/G | 231#12 |
| 4.8#130 | YDS/PLAY | 6.6#23 |
| 40.2%#78 | 3RD DOWN | 48.8%#21 |
| 0.02#118 | OFF PPA | 0.19#49 |
| 43.7%#66 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.3%#49 |
| 42.9%#99 | DEF SUCCESS | 32.8%#2 |
| 20.9% | RET PROD | 57.0% |
| 1.06#135 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22#80 |
| 1463 | ELO | 1690 |
| 1.7#61 | FPI | 11.0#31 |
| 1.7 | SRS | 17.3 |
| −5#120 | TO MARGIN | +10#5 |
| 0.19#117 | DEF PPA | -0.18#1 |
| -1.2 | SP+ | 15.3 |
THE VENUE
Rose BowlLocationPasadena, CA
Capacity88,565
SurfaceGrass
Opened1922
Elevation804 ft
FAN NEWS
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