Michigan State at Michigan: Time, TV, Odds & Prediction

GAME DAY

Week 10 · TBD

Michigan StateMSU2–5·B1G

MichiganMICH4–2·B1G

MSU radioSpartan Media Network

MICH radioMichigan Sports Network

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Terms & eligibility

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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODEL

10,000 simulations10k Sims

The Read

Michigan opens a 16.5-point favorite. Our model gives Michigan a 85% chance.

SeriesMichigan leads 75–38–5 · Michigan won the last meeting, 31–20 · 2025

WIN PROBABILITY

MICH 85% MSU 15%

PROJECTED FINAL

Michigan

Michigan State

MICH win
85% One-score game
25%

What's driving the model

Ratings edge (Elo) MICH

Home-field edge MICH

Market lean MICH

Model projection MICH

Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.

Michigan State @ Michigan

Your sims:Sims: MICH 0, MSU 0

HOW THEY GOT HERE

last 3

Michigan State

2026: 2–5 (0–4 B1G)

Lvs Northwestern24–21 Lvs Illinois38–37 (OT)Lat Wisconsin31–3

Michigan

2026: 4–2 (1–2 B1G)

Wvs Penn State21–18 Lat Minnesota20–14 Lvs Iowa20–19

Betting Lines

See All Betting Odds →All →

SPREADMSU +16.5MICH −16.5

TOTALOver 50.5Under 50.5

MONEYLINEMSU +625MICH −950

DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice

Michigan State vs Michigan Stats ComparisonMSU vs Michigan Stats Comparison

Michigan StateMSU		MichiganMICH
21.3#113	PPG	22.7#105
25.4#82	PA/G	16.2#21
310.7#128	YDS/G	313.3#125
191.6#107	PASS/G	165.7#125
119.1#119	RUSH/G	147.7#84
4.8#130	YDS/PLAY	5.4#104
40.2%#78	3RD DOWN	40.8%#72
0.02#118	OFF PPA	0.09#93
43.7%#66	OFF SUCCESS	42.0%#83
42.9%#99	DEF SUCCESS	34.1%#10
20.9%	RET PROD	69.2%
1.06#135	EXPLOSIVE	1.19#94
1463	ELO	1721
1.7#61	FPI	10.9#32
1.7	SRS	3.8
−5#120	TO MARGIN	−3#100
0.19#117	DEF PPA	-0.11#8
-1.2	SP+	13.1

THE VENUE

Michigan Stadium

LocationAnn Arbor, MI

Capacity107,601

SurfaceTurf

Opened1927

Elevation838 ft

FAN NEWS

2026 season

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