GAME DAY
Week 10 · TBDMSU radioSpartan Media Network
MICH radioMichigan Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Michigan opens a 16.5-point favorite. Our model gives Michigan a 85% chance.
SeriesMichigan leads 75–38–5 · Michigan won the last meeting, 31–20 · 2025
What's driving the model
Home-field edge MICH
Market lean MICH
Model projection MICH
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Michigan State @ Michigan
Your sims:Sims: MICH 0, MSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMSU +16.5MICH −16.5
TOTALOver 50.5Under 50.5
MONEYLINEMSU +625MICH −950
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Michigan State vs Michigan Stats ComparisonMSU vs Michigan Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Michigan StateMSU | MichiganMICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 24.6#89 | PPG | 27.5#69 |
| 29.9#104 | PA/G | 20.4#29 |
| 345.3#99 | YDS/G | 397.9#58 |
| 222.7#70 | PASS/G | 186.8#107 |
| 122.7#110 | RUSH/G | 211.2#14 |
| 5.4#92 | YDS/PLAY | 6.2#27 |
| 34.6%#110 | 3RD DOWN | 43.6%#32 |
| 0.13#90 | OFF PPA | 0.20#47 |
| 0.20#101 | DEF PPA | 0.11#52 |
| 42.1%#72 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.5%#32 |
| 44.6%#110 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.8%#70 |
| 20.9% | RET PROD | 69.2% |
| 1.20#98 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.14#129 |
| 2.2 | SP+ | 17.0 |
| 0.3#65 | FPI | 15.9#15 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Michigan StadiumLocationAnn Arbor, MI
Capacity107,601
SurfaceTurf
Opened1927
Elevation838 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 10 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
