GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·TulaneTULN0–0·AAC
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Duke opens a 7.5-point favorite. Our model gives Duke a 73% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 3–3 · Tulane won the last meeting, 34–27 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) DUKE
Home-field edge DUKE
Market lean DUKE
Model projection DUKE
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Tulane @ Duke
Your sims:Sims: DUKE 0, TULN 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelDUKE 73%MarketDUKE 74%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $23,383 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADTULN +7.5DUKE −7.5
TOTALOver 51.5Under 51.5
MONEYLINETULN +245DUKE −305
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Tulane vs Duke Stats ComparisonTulane vs Duke Stats Comparison
2025 stats| TulaneTULN | DukeDUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 27.7#68 | PPG | 34.6#16 |
| 23.9#58 | PA/G | 29.4#98 |
| 411.5#36 | YDS/G | 423.6#25 |
| 245.1#50 | PASS/G | 285.4#11 |
| 166.4#58 | RUSH/G | 138.2#88 |
| 6.1#31 | YDS/PLAY | 6.2#27 |
| 42.1%#43 | 3RD DOWN | 39.0%#77 |
| +8#18 | TO MARGIN | +10#11 |
| 0.20#41 | OFF PPA | 0.24#24 |
| 0.15#66 | DEF PPA | 0.22#113 |
| 44.7%#41 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.8%#29 |
| 44.6%#110 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.5%#96 |
| 21.0% | RET PROD | 17.1% |
| 1.21#94 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.33#26 |
| 2.3#56 | FPI | 3.5#52 |
| -4.3 | SP+ | 5.6 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Wallace Wade StadiumLocationDurham, NC
Capacity40,004
SurfaceGrass
Opened1929
Elevation338 ft
FAN NEWS
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