GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·VanderbiltVAN3–4·SEC
KentuckyUK6–1·SEC
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Kentucky opens a 10.5-point favorite. Our model gives Kentucky a 79% chance.
SeriesKentucky leads 49–42–4 · Vanderbilt won the last meeting, 45–17 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
UK win
79% One-score game
30% Cover UK −10.5
55%
79% One-score game
30% Cover UK −10.5
55%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) UK
Home-field edge UK
Market lean UK
Model projection UK
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky
Your sims:Sims: UK 0, VAN 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUK 79%MarketUK 80%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $11,052 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADVAN +10.5UK −10.5
TOTALOver 51.5Under 51.5
MONEYLINEVAN +360UK −470
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Stats ComparisonVanderbilt vs Kentucky Stats Comparison
| VanderbiltVAN | KentuckyUK | |
|---|---|---|
| 23.6#98 | PPG | 32.7#46 |
| 29.7#115 | PA/G | 25.9#92 |
| 354.4#100 | YDS/G | 387.9#71 |
| 235.1#63 | PASS/G | 221.7#79 |
| 119.3#118 | RUSH/G | 166.1#56 |
| 5.5#97 | YDS/PLAY | 6.1#53 |
| 38.5%#84 | 3RD DOWN | 29.1%#136 |
| 0.06#100 | OFF PPA | 0.19#47 |
| 0.13#100 | DEF PPA | 0.03#51 |
| 40.5%#98 | OFF SUCCESS | 48.3%#24 |
| 43.3%#106 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.9%#111 |
| 35.4% | RET PROD | 19.3% |
| 1.25#56 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.14#112 |
| 1577 | ELO | 1599 |
| 1.2 | SP+ | 8.0 |
| 0.5#66 | FPI | 12.7#26 |
| −5#120 | TO MARGIN | +11#3 |
| -4.1 | SRS | 15.3 |
THE VENUE
Kroger FieldLocationLexington, KY
Capacity61,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1973
Elevation1,009 ft
FAN NEWS
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