GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·CaliforniaCAL3–4·ACC
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
SMU opens a 19.5-point favorite. Our model gives SMU a 90% chance.
SeriesSMU leads 2–1 · California won the last meeting, 38–35 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
SMU win
90% One-score game
19% Cover SMU −19.5
53%
90% One-score game
19% Cover SMU −19.5
53%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) SMU
Home-field edge SMU
Market lean SMU
Model projection SMU
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
California @ SMU
Your sims:Sims: SMU 0, CAL 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelSMU 90%MarketSMU 90%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $18,415 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:00 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADCAL +19.5SMU −19.5
TOTALOver 53.5Under 53.5
MONEYLINECAL +750SMU −1200
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
California vs SMU Stats ComparisonCalifornia vs SMU Stats Comparison
| CaliforniaCAL | SMUSMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 23.9#96 | PPG | 32.7#46 |
| 27.7#104 | PA/G | 21.3#47 |
| 378.4#79 | YDS/G | 470.8#14 |
| 288.1#15 | PASS/G | 329.3#5 |
| 90.3#137 | RUSH/G | 141.5#93 |
| 5.4#104 | YDS/PLAY | 6.8#14 |
| 37.5%#85 | 3RD DOWN | 48.1%#23 |
| 0.13#99 | DEF PPA | 0.06#64 |
| 38.4%#122 | OFF SUCCESS | 48.2%#25 |
| 38.3%#46 | DEF SUCCESS | 37.7%#42 |
| 58.3% | RET PROD | 56.9% |
| 1.23#71 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.27#47 |
| 1296 | ELO | 1699 |
| +1#61 | TO MARGIN | −3#100 |
| -0.02#126 | OFF PPA | 0.21#40 |
| -2.5 | SP+ | 12.8 |
| -3.9#88 | FPI | 9.8#35 |
| -6.3 | SRS | 4.1 |
THE VENUE
Gerald J. Ford StadiumLocationUniversity Park, TX
Capacity32,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened2000
Elevation556 ft
FAN NEWS
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