GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·CaliforniaCAL3–4·ACC
NC StateNCSU3–3·ACC
CAL radioCal Bears Sports Network
NCSU radioWolfpack Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives NC State a 63% chance.
SeriesNC State leads 1–0 · NC State won the last meeting, 24–23 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NCSU
Home-field edge NCSU
Model projection NCSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
California @ NC State
Your sims:Sims: NCSU 0, CAL 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelNCSU 63%MarketNCSU 70%
Market 7 points higher than our model
Kalshi · $53 traded · as of Oct 20, 9:00 AM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
California vs NC State Stats ComparisonCalifornia vs NC State Stats Comparison
| CaliforniaCAL | NC StateNCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 23.9#96 | PPG | 33#44 |
| 27.7#104 | PA/G | 27.7#104 |
| 378.4#79 | YDS/G | 426.3#43 |
| 288.1#15 | PASS/G | 257.8#41 |
| 90.3#137 | RUSH/G | 168.5#54 |
| 5.4#104 | YDS/PLAY | 6#57 |
| 37.5%#85 | 3RD DOWN | 51.7%#12 |
| 0.12#98 | DEF PPA | 0.16#110 |
| 38.4%#123 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.6%#45 |
| 38.1%#45 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.0%#89 |
| 58.3% | RET PROD | 59.9% |
| 1.23#71 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.24#65 |
| 1296 | ELO | 1471 |
| +1#61 | TO MARGIN | −1#82 |
| -0.02#126 | OFF PPA | 0.19#48 |
| -2.5 | SP+ | -1.3 |
| -3.9#88 | FPI | 1.1#62 |
| -6.3 | SRS | -2.2 |
THE VENUE
Carter-Finley StadiumLocationRaleigh, NC
Capacity58,000
SurfaceGrass
Opened1966
Elevation384 ft
FAN NEWS
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