GAME DAY
Week 10 · TBDNC StateNCSU0–1·ACC
DUKE radioDuke Radio Network
NCSU radioWolfpack Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives NC State a 60% chance.
SeriesDuke leads 44–37–5 · Duke won the last meeting, 45–33 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NCSU
Home-field edge NCSU
Model projection NCSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Duke @ NC State
Your sims:Sims: NCSU 0, DUKE 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3NC State
NC State2026: 0–1 (0–1 ACC)
Lat Virginia34–8NC State2026: 0–1 (0–1 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Duke vs NC State Stats ComparisonDuke vs NC State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| DukeDUKE | NC StateNCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 34.6#16 | PPG | 30.2#44 |
| 29.4#98 | PA/G | 27.2#82 |
| 423.6#25 | YDS/G | 392.8#65 |
| 285.4#11 | PASS/G | 245.7#49 |
| 138.2#88 | RUSH/G | 147.1#81 |
| 6.2#27 | YDS/PLAY | 6.1#31 |
| 39.0%#77 | 3RD DOWN | 41.2%#51 |
| +10#11 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| 0.24#24 | OFF PPA | 0.24#27 |
| 0.22#113 | DEF PPA | 0.19#92 |
| 45.8%#29 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.4%#67 |
| 43.5%#96 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.8%#49 |
| 17.1% | RET PROD | 59.9% |
| 1.33#26 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.38#9 |
| 5.6 | SP+ | 5.7 |
| 3.5#52 | FPI | 3.7#51 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Carter-Finley StadiumLocationRaleigh, NC
Capacity58,000
SurfaceGrass
Opened1966
Elevation384 ft
FAN NEWS
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