GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·IllinoisILL3–3·B1G
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Oregon opens a 8.5-point favorite. Our model gives Oregon a 75% chance.
SeriesOregon leads 3–1 · Oregon won the last meeting, 38–9 · 2024
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
ILL win
25% One-score game
34% Cover ORE −8.5
54%
25% One-score game
34% Cover ORE −8.5
54%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) ORE
Home-field edge ILL
Market lean ORE
Model projection ORE
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Oregon @ Illinois
Your sims:Sims: ILL 0, ORE 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelORE 75%MarketORE 76%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $60,736 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADORE −8.5ILL +8.5
TOTALOver 50.5Under 50.5
MONEYLINEORE −360ILL +285
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Oregon vs Illinois Stats ComparisonOregon vs Illinois Stats Comparison
| OregonORE | IllinoisILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 37#24 | PPG | 31.8#51 |
| 20.7#42 | PA/G | 27.8#106 |
| 420.3#49 | YDS/G | 405.5#59 |
| 283.3#18 | PASS/G | 254.7#44 |
| 137#99 | RUSH/G | 150.8#81 |
| 6#59 | YDS/PLAY | 6.5#28 |
| 37.0%#92 | 3RD DOWN | 44.8%#39 |
| 0.13#76 | OFF PPA | 0.23#30 |
| 42.8%#79 | OFF SUCCESS | 50.1%#13 |
| 35.1%#21 | DEF SUCCESS | 45.5%#119 |
| 75.3% | RET PROD | 21.1% |
| 1.25#56 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25#60 |
| 1831 | ELO | 1536 |
| 21.0 | SP+ | 5.8 |
| 19.0#10 | FPI | 4.4#53 |
| 17.3 | SRS | 2.3 |
| +0#70 | TO MARGIN | −1#82 |
| -0.04#15 | DEF PPA | 0.25#128 |
THE VENUE
Memorial StadiumLocationChampaign, IL
Capacity60,670
SurfaceTurf
Opened1923
Elevation732 ft
FAN NEWS
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