GAME DAY
Week 5 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k Sims
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) SDSU
Home-field edge SDSU
Model projection SDSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Texas State @ San Diego State
Your sims:Sims: SDSU 0, TXST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3San Diego State
San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)
Lvs North Texas49–47Lat New Mexico23–17 (OT)Wvs San José State25–3San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Texas State vs San Diego State Stats ComparisonTexas State vs SDSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Texas StateTXST | San Diego StateSDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 36.5#12 | PPG | 26.4#77 |
| 29#95 | PA/G | 15.4#6 |
| 473.5#5 | YDS/G | 356#91 |
| 250.8#43 | PASS/G | 157.9#125 |
| 222.7#10 | RUSH/G | 198.9#19 |
| 6.7#13 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#74 |
| 46.0%#23 | 3RD DOWN | 31.4%#130 |
| 0.31#10 | OFF PPA | 0.12#95 |
| 45.8%#29 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.2%#81 |
| 41.1%#61 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.4%#9 |
| 76.0% | RET PROD | 98.7% |
| 1.35#18 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.18#106 |
| −5#103 | TO MARGIN | +3#46 |
| 0.16#71 | DEF PPA | -0.02#3 |
| -2.1 | SP+ | 0.7 |
| -4.3#84 | FPI | 1.4#59 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Snapdragon StadiumLocationSan Diego, CA
Capacity35,000
SurfaceGrass
Opened2022
Elevation203 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 5 GAMES
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