GAME DAY
Week 6 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives San Diego State a 56% chance.
SeriesOregon State leads 5–2 · Oregon State won the last meeting, 21–0 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) SDSU
Home-field edge ORST
Model projection SDSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
San Diego State @ Oregon State
Your sims:Sims: ORST 0, SDSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3San Diego State
San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)
Lvs North Texas49–47Lat New Mexico23–17 (OT)Wvs San José State25–3San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)Oregon State
Oregon State2025: 2–10 (1–1 PAC)
Lat Washington State32–8Lat Tulsa31–14Lvs Sam Houston21–17Oregon State2025: 2–10 (1–1 PAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
San Diego State vs Oregon State Stats ComparisonSDSU vs Oregon State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| San Diego StateSDSU | Oregon StateORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 26.4#77 | PPG | 18.2#125 |
| 15.4#6 | PA/G | 29.4#98 |
| 356#91 | YDS/G | 352.7#95 |
| 157.9#125 | PASS/G | 225.4#66 |
| 198.9#19 | RUSH/G | 127.2#103 |
| 5.6#74 | YDS/PLAY | 5.1#111 |
| 31.4%#130 | 3RD DOWN | 35.9%#102 |
| 0.12#95 | OFF PPA | 0.06#120 |
| 41.2%#81 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.4%#67 |
| 35.4%#9 | DEF SUCCESS | 38.8%#38 |
| 98.7% | RET PROD | 57.9% |
| 1.18#106 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.07#135 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | −10#123 |
| -0.02#3 | DEF PPA | 0.18#87 |
| 0.7 | SP+ | -5.6 |
| 1.4#59 | FPI | -8.1#98 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Reser StadiumLocationCorvallis, OR
Capacity43,363
SurfaceTurf
Opened1953
Elevation220 ft
FAN NEWS
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