GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·MercyhurstMERC–
StreamingESPN+
NMSU radioAggie Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
New Mexico State opens a 28.5-point favorite. Our model gives New Mexico State a 96% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
What's driving the model
Home-field edge NMSU
Market lean NMSU
Model projection NMSU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Mercyhurst @ New Mexico State
Your sims:Sims: NMSU 0, MERC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat Florida State34–17New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMERC +28.5NMSU −28.5
TOTALOver 52.5Under 52.5
MONEYLINEMERC +4000NMSU −50000
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Mercyhurst vs New Mexico State Stats ComparisonMercyhurst vs NMSU Stats Comparison
| MercyhurstMERC | New Mexico StateNMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| – | PPG | 17 |
| – | PA/G | 34 |
| – | YDS/G | 319 |
| – | PASS/G | 272 |
| – | RUSH/G | 47 |
| – | YDS/PLAY | 4.8 |
| – | 3RD DOWN | 58.8% |
| – | TO MARGIN | +0 |
| – | OFF PPA | 0.16 |
| – | DEF PPA | 0.29 |
| – | OFF SUCCESS | 34.3% |
| – | DEF SUCCESS | 44.8% |
| – | RET PROD | 24.4% |
| – | EXPLOSIVE | 1.64 |
| – | SP+ | -18.5 |
| – | FPI | -15.7#129 |
THE VENUE
Aggie Memorial StadiumLocationLas Cruces, NM
Capacity28,853
SurfaceTurf
Opened1978
Elevation3,964 ft
FAN NEWS
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