GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·MercyhurstMERC–
New MexicoUNM0–0·MWC
StreamingMW+
UNM radioLobo Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives New Mexico a 97% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) UNM
Home-field edge UNM
Model projection UNM
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Mercyhurst @ New Mexico
Your sims:Sims: UNM 0, MERC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3MercyhurstMercyhurst2025: 0–1
Lat Sacramento State49–28New Mexico
New Mexico2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)
Lvs Minnesota20–17 (OT)Wvs San Diego State23–17 (OT)Wat Air Force20–3New Mexico2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
- New Mexico92%
- Mercyhurst9%
CFB Vibes ModelUNM 97%MarketUNM 92%
Market 5 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $1,151 traded · as of Sep 1, 9:36 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Mercyhurst vs New Mexico Stats ComparisonMercyhurst vs New Mexico Stats Comparison
2025 stats| MercyhurstMERC | New MexicoUNM | |
|---|---|---|
| – | PPG | 27.1#73 |
| – | PA/G | 22.3#46 |
| – | YDS/G | 357.2#90 |
| – | PASS/G | 204.8#92 |
| – | RUSH/G | 152.4#76 |
| – | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| – | 3RD DOWN | 39.4%#72 |
| – | TO MARGIN | −6#108 |
| – | OFF PPA | 0.16#74 |
| – | DEF PPA | 0.10#45 |
| – | OFF SUCCESS | 40.8%#88 |
| – | DEF SUCCESS | 39.5%#46 |
| – | RET PROD | 58.2% |
| – | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25#55 |
| – | SP+ | 0.0 |
| – | FPI | -3.5#81 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
University Stadium (NM)LocationAlbuquerque, NM
Capacity39,224
SurfaceTurf
Opened1960
Elevation5,100 ft
FAN NEWS
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