GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Ball State opens a 14.5-point favorite. Our model gives Ball State a 83% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
BALL win
83% One-score game
27% Cover BALL −14.5
53%
83% One-score game
27% Cover BALL −14.5
53%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) BALL
Home-field edge BALL
Market lean BALL
Model projection BALL
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Sacramento State @ Ball State
Your sims:Sims: BALL 0, SAC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Sacramento State
Lvs Ohio48–7Lat Bowling Green38–10Lvs Massachusetts35–6
Ball State
Wat Bowling Green32–31 (OT)Lat Northwestern45–14Lvs Toledo39–24
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelBALL 83%MarketBALL 84%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $7,727 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:00 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADSAC +14.5BALL −14.5
TOTALOver 51.5Under 51.5
MONEYLINESAC +425BALL −575
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Sacramento State vs Ball State Stats ComparisonSAC vs Ball State Stats Comparison
| Sacramento StateSAC | Ball StateBALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 15#135 | PPG | 20.3#118 |
| 32.7#125 | PA/G | 37.9#135 |
| 302.3#132 | YDS/G | 326.1#118 |
| 194.7#104 | PASS/G | 190.9#108 |
| 107.6#126 | RUSH/G | 135.3#101 |
| 4.6#135 | YDS/PLAY | 5.1#118 |
| 33.7%#115 | 3RD DOWN | 30.7%#131 |
| 0.19#119 | DEF PPA | 0.29#134 |
| 40.1%#102 | OFF SUCCESS | 38.2%#123 |
| 39.6%#57 | DEF SUCCESS | 45.1%#118 |
| 1.02#138 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.33#19 |
| 1019 | ELO | 1065 |
| −10#137 | TO MARGIN | −2#91 |
| -0.08#134 | OFF PPA | 0.07#98 |
| – | RET PROD | 5.7% |
| -24.7 | SP+ | -25.2 |
| -32.4#138 | FPI | -21.1#132 |
| -28.7 | SRS | -15.4 |
THE VENUE
Scheumann StadiumLocationMuncie, IN
Capacity22,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened1967
Elevation937 ft
FAN NEWS
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