GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·MinnesotaMINN4–2·B1G
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Iowa opens a 7-point favorite. Our model gives Iowa a 69% chance.
SeriesMinnesota leads 62–54–2 · Iowa won the last meeting, 41–3 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) IOWA
Home-field edge MINN
Market lean IOWA
Model projection IOWA
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Iowa @ Minnesota
Your sims:Sims: MINN 0, IOWA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelIOWA 69%MarketIOWA 72%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $53,360 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADIOWA −7MINN +7
TOTALOver 40.5Under 40.5
MONEYLINEIOWA −278MINN +225
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Iowa vs Minnesota Stats ComparisonIowa vs Minnesota Stats Comparison
| IowaIOWA | MinnesotaMINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 31#61 | PPG | 28.8#73 |
| 14.5#8 | PA/G | 21.8#54 |
| 403.2#62 | YDS/G | 341.3#108 |
| 209.2#93 | PASS/G | 236.5#61 |
| 194#36 | RUSH/G | 104.8#130 |
| 6.5#28 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4#104 |
| 39.4%#80 | 3RD DOWN | 37.3%#87 |
| +2#47 | TO MARGIN | +1#61 |
| 0.18#55 | OFF PPA | 0.05#105 |
| 45.3%#49 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.0%#77 |
| 34.4%#13 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.2%#52 |
| 34.2% | RET PROD | 64.9% |
| 1.23#73 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.12#120 |
| 1853 | ELO | 1427 |
| 13.0 | SP+ | 2.9 |
| -0.02#30 | DEF PPA | 0.04#56 |
| 13.1#25 | FPI | -0.2#72 |
| 12.4 | SRS | -1.1 |
THE VENUE
Huntington Bank StadiumLocationMinneapolis, MN
Capacity50,850
SurfaceTurf
Opened2009
Elevation835 ft
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