GAME DAY
Week 6 · TBDPenn StatePSU0–0·B1G
USC radioTrojan Media Network
PSU radioPenn State Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Penn State opens a 1.5-point favorite. Our model gives Penn State a 55% chance.
SeriesUSC leads 6–5 · Penn State won the last meeting, 33–30 · 2024
What's driving the model
Home-field edge PSU
Market lean PSU
Model projection PSU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
USC @ Penn State
Your sims:Sims: PSU 0, USC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3USC
USC2026: 1–0 (0–0 B1G)
Wvs San José State42–26USC2026: 1–0 (0–0 B1G)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADUSC +1.5PSU −1.5
TOTALOver 56.5Under 56.5
MONEYLINEUSC +105PSU −125
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
USC vs Penn State Stats ComparisonUSC vs Penn State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| USCUSC | Penn StatePSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 35.8#13 | PPG | 31#34 |
| 23#51 | PA/G | 20.5#30 |
| 465.2#8 | YDS/G | 362#86 |
| 296#5 | PASS/G | 187.6#105 |
| 169.2#56 | RUSH/G | 174.4#50 |
| 7.2#3 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#55 |
| 51.3%#5 | 3RD DOWN | 43.6%#32 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | +3#46 |
| 0.34#4 | OFF PPA | 0.23#30 |
| 0.15#64 | DEF PPA | 0.10#45 |
| 49.0%#8 | OFF SUCCESS | 46.2%#25 |
| 44.8%#115 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.9%#59 |
| 59.2% | RET PROD | 7.6% |
| 1.34#21 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#101 |
| 17.7 | SP+ | 16.2 |
| 17.0#13 | FPI | 13.7#17 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Beaver StadiumLocationUniversity Park, PA
Capacity106,572
SurfaceGrass
Opened1960
Elevation1,162 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about USC or Penn State?
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TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
