GAME DAY
Week 7 · TBDPenn StatePSU0–0·B1G
MichiganMICH0–0·B1G
PSU radioPenn State Sports Network
MICH radioMichigan Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Michigan opens a 6.5-point favorite. Our model gives Michigan a 66% chance.
SeriesMichigan leads 17–10 · Michigan won the last meeting, 24–15 · 2023
What's driving the model
Home-field edge MICH
Market lean MICH
Model projection MICH
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Penn State @ Michigan
Your sims:Sims: MICH 0, PSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADPSU +6.5MICH −6.5
TOTALOver 51.5Under 51.5
MONEYLINEPSU +215MICH −265
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Penn State vs Michigan Stats ComparisonPenn State vs Michigan Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Penn StatePSU | MichiganMICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 31#34 | PPG | 27.5#69 |
| 20.5#30 | PA/G | 20.4#29 |
| 362#86 | YDS/G | 397.9#58 |
| 187.6#105 | PASS/G | 186.8#107 |
| 174.4#50 | RUSH/G | 211.2#14 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 6.2#27 |
| 43.6%#32 | 3RD DOWN | 43.6%#32 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| 0.23#30 | OFF PPA | 0.20#47 |
| 0.10#45 | DEF PPA | 0.11#52 |
| 46.2%#25 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.5%#32 |
| 40.9%#59 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.8%#70 |
| 7.6% | RET PROD | 69.2% |
| 1.20#101 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.14#129 |
| 16.2 | SP+ | 17.0 |
| 13.7#17 | FPI | 15.9#15 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Michigan StadiumLocationAnn Arbor, MI
Capacity107,601
SurfaceTurf
Opened1927
Elevation838 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Penn State or Michigan?
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