GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·MichiganMICH4–2·B1G
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Indiana opens a 7-point favorite. Our model gives Indiana a 70% chance.
SeriesMichigan leads 62–11 · Indiana won the last meeting, 20–15 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) IU
Home-field edge MICH
Market lean IU
Model projection IU
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Indiana @ Michigan
Your sims:Sims: MICH 0, IU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelIU 70%MarketIU 72%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $34,404 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADIU −7MICH +7
TOTALOver 41.5Under 41.5
MONEYLINEIU −285MICH +230
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Indiana vs Michigan Stats ComparisonIndiana vs Michigan Stats Comparison
| IndianaIU | MichiganMICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 36.6#25 | PPG | 22.7#105 |
| 12.9#4 | PA/G | 16.2#21 |
| 449.3#31 | YDS/G | 313.3#125 |
| 249.1#49 | PASS/G | 165.7#125 |
| 200.1#29 | RUSH/G | 147.7#84 |
| 7.4#4 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4#104 |
| 46.3%#30 | 3RD DOWN | 40.8%#72 |
| 0.35#5 | OFF PPA | 0.09#93 |
| 47.0%#39 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.0%#83 |
| 32.9%#3 | DEF SUCCESS | 34.1%#10 |
| 16.6% | RET PROD | 69.2% |
| 1.40#5 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.19#94 |
| 2089 | ELO | 1721 |
| 26.7 | SP+ | 13.1 |
| 25.4#5 | FPI | 10.9#32 |
| 20.5 | SRS | 3.8 |
| +3#33 | TO MARGIN | −3#100 |
| -0.04#16 | DEF PPA | -0.11#8 |
THE VENUE
Michigan StadiumLocationAnn Arbor, MI
Capacity107,601
SurfaceTurf
Opened1927
Elevation838 ft
FAN NEWS
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