GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Florida opens a 26.5-point favorite. Our model gives Florida a 97% chance.
SeriesFlorida leads 4–0 · Florida won the last meeting, 35–14 · 2021
97% One-score game
8% Cover FLA −26.5
57%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: FLA 0, FAU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Florida Atlantic2025: 4–8 (3–5 AAC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $36,124 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Florida Atlantic vs Florida Stats ComparisonFAU vs Florida Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Florida AtlanticFAU | FloridaFLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.5#49 | PPG | 21.6#111 |
| 36.3#131 | PA/G | 24#60 |
| 445.7#22 | YDS/G | 341.3#104 |
| 340.5#1 | PASS/G | 204.6#93 |
| 105.2#123 | RUSH/G | 136.8#91 |
| 5.7#65 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4#92 |
| 36.8%#96 | 3RD DOWN | 34.4%#113 |
| 0.16#74 | OFF PPA | 0.14#87 |
| 0.22#113 | DEF PPA | 0.17#81 |
| 40.3%#98 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.9%#62 |
| 43.7%#99 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.9%#91 |
| 68.4% | RET PROD | 69.1% |
| 1.40#7 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.10#133 |
| −21#136 | TO MARGIN | −1#77 |
| -6.1 | SP+ | 15.2 |
| -11.3#115 | FPI | 13.6#18 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Ben Hill Griffin StadiumFAN NEWS
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