GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Kansas State opens a 3.5-point favorite. Our model gives Kansas State a 59% chance.
SeriesArizona State leads 6–1 · Arizona State won the last meeting, 24–14 · 2024
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: ASU 0, KSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $1,619 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:00 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Kansas State vs Arizona State Stats ComparisonKansas State vs ASU Stats Comparison
| Kansas StateKSU | Arizona StateASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 35.5#33 | PPG | 31.3#56 |
| 20#40 | PA/G | 32#120 |
| 464.8#16 | YDS/G | 420.3#49 |
| 224.8#75 | PASS/G | 276.7#23 |
| 240#6 | RUSH/G | 143.7#88 |
| 6.6#23 | YDS/PLAY | 6.2#50 |
| 59.3%#2 | 3RD DOWN | 30.8%#130 |
| 0.26#21 | OFF PPA | 0.05#107 |
| 0.07#71 | DEF PPA | 0.12#92 |
| 50.0%#14 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.8%#64 |
| 34.5%#15 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.3%#81 |
| 71.4% | RET PROD | 15.5% |
| 1.19#92 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.23#73 |
| 1637 | ELO | 1435 |
| 11.0 | SP+ | 3.6 |
| −2#91 | TO MARGIN | −4#111 |
| 7.6#45 | FPI | -1.3#75 |
| 6.2 | SRS | -3.9 |
THE VENUE
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