GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Nevada a 75% chance.
SeriesMiddle Tennessee leads 1–0 · Middle Tennessee won the last meeting, 14–13 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NEV
Home-field edge MTSU
Model projection NEV
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Nevada @ Middle Tennessee
Your sims:Sims: MTSU 0, NEV 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)
Wat New Mexico State31–24 (OT)Wvs Sam Houston31–17Lat Western Kentucky42–26Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Nevada vs Middle Tennessee Stats ComparisonNevada vs MTSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| NevadaNEV | Middle TennesseeMTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 17.6#128 | PPG | 22.4#107 |
| 27.5#87 | PA/G | 30.9#115 |
| 302.4#126 | YDS/G | 371#82 |
| 147.2#127 | PASS/G | 264.9#28 |
| 155.2#73 | RUSH/G | 106.1#121 |
| 5#117 | YDS/PLAY | 5.5#81 |
| 32.1%#127 | 3RD DOWN | 37.1%#93 |
| 0.03#127 | OFF PPA | 0.14#85 |
| 0.19#90 | DEF PPA | 0.21#111 |
| 37.1%#120 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.2%#70 |
| 42.6%#87 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.1%#104 |
| 35.5% | RET PROD | 32.5% |
| 1.21#90 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22#78 |
| −12#129 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| -11.7 | SP+ | -26.5 |
| -11.9#116 | FPI | -16.1#130 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Johnny "Red" Floyd StadiumLocationMurfreesboro, TN
Capacity30,788
SurfaceTurf
Opened1933
Elevation629 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Nevada or Middle Tennessee?
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TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
