GAME DAY
Week 4 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Jacksonville State a 92% chance.
SeriesJacksonville State leads 3–0 · Jacksonville State won the last meeting, 24–21 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
JXST win
92% One-score game
17%
92% One-score game
17%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) JXST
Home-field edge JXST
Model projection JXST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville St
Your sims:Sims: JXST 0, MTSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat North Dakota State33–7Jacksonville State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State Stats ComparisonMTSU vs JXST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Middle TennesseeMTSU | Jacksonville StateJXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 22.4#107 | PPG | 28.1#62 |
| 30.9#115 | PA/G | 25.2#71 |
| 371#82 | YDS/G | 409.4#41 |
| 264.9#28 | PASS/G | 161.8#122 |
| 106.1#121 | RUSH/G | 247.6#5 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.9#46 |
| 37.1%#93 | 3RD DOWN | 38.7%#81 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | +11#8 |
| 0.14#85 | OFF PPA | 0.19#53 |
| 0.21#111 | DEF PPA | 0.15#69 |
| 42.2%#70 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.9%#47 |
| 44.1%#104 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.0%#77 |
| 32.5% | RET PROD | 49.5% |
| 1.22#78 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25#56 |
| -26.5 | SP+ | -7.8 |
| -16.1#130 | FPI | -8.5#101 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
AmFirst StadiumLocationJacksonville, AL
Capacity24,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1947
Elevation650 ft
FAN NEWS
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