GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·TulaneTULN3–3·AAC
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
UTSA opens a 2.5-point favorite. Our model gives UTSA a 57% chance.
SeriesUTSA leads 2–1 · UTSA won the last meeting, 48–26 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) TULN
Home-field edge TULN
Market lean UTSA
Model projection UTSA
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
UTSA @ Tulane
Your sims:Sims: TULN 0, UTSA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUTSA 57%MarketUTSA 56%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $13,301 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADUTSA −2.5TULN +2.5
TOTALOver 51.5Under 51.5
MONEYLINEUTSA −135TULN +114
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
UTSA vs Tulane Stats ComparisonUTSA vs Tulane Stats Comparison
| UTSAUTSA | TulaneTULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 32.3#49 | PPG | 20.5#117 |
| 27#100 | PA/G | 21.7#50 |
| 410.9#55 | YDS/G | 332#115 |
| 231.7#69 | PASS/G | 179.7#116 |
| 179.1#49 | RUSH/G | 152.3#76 |
| 6.1#53 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#86 |
| 36.8%#93 | 3RD DOWN | 36.6%#96 |
| +4#22 | TO MARGIN | +2#47 |
| 0.24#28 | OFF PPA | 0.06#101 |
| 0.10#83 | DEF PPA | 0.09#82 |
| 46.8%#41 | OFF SUCCESS | 32.9%#137 |
| 42.0%#89 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.6%#83 |
| 66.9% | RET PROD | 21.0% |
| 1.18#99 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.54#1 |
| 1523 | ELO | 1558 |
| 0.8 | SP+ | -7.6 |
| -1.9#77 | FPI | -1.2#74 |
| 0.1 | SRS | -1.8 |
THE VENUE
Yulman StadiumLocationNew Orleans, LA
Capacity30,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened2014
Elevation0 ft
FAN NEWS
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