GAME DAY
Week 13 · ·LIB radioLiberty Flames Sports Network
MOST radioBears Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Liberty a 73% chance.
SeriesMissouri State leads 1–0 · Missouri State won the last meeting, 21–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) LIB
Home-field edge MOST
Model projection LIB
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Liberty @ Missouri State
Your sims:Sims: MOST 0, LIB 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Liberty
Liberty2025: 4–8 (3–5 CUSA)
Lvs Kennesaw State48–42 (OT)Lat Louisiana Tech34–28 (OT)Lat Florida International34–27 (OT)Liberty2025: 4–8 (3–5 CUSA)Missouri State
Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)
Lvs Arkansas State34–28Lvs Louisiana Tech42–30Lat Kennesaw State41–34Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Liberty vs Missouri State Stats ComparisonLiberty vs MOST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| LibertyLIB | Missouri StateMOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.6#83 | PPG | 25.6#83 |
| 26.5#76 | PA/G | 28.8#91 |
| 388.5#70 | YDS/G | 393.4#64 |
| 195.5#101 | PASS/G | 279.7#16 |
| 193#26 | RUSH/G | 113.7#118 |
| 5.7#65 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 40.1%#65 | 3RD DOWN | 36.3%#101 |
| 0.17#67 | OFF PPA | 0.17#66 |
| 0.20#105 | DEF PPA | 0.24#122 |
| 43.5%#51 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.3%#110 |
| 41.5%#68 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.6%#87 |
| 38.3% | RET PROD | 31.3% |
| 1.21#92 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.49#2 |
| −7#112 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
| -5.3 | SP+ | -19.1 |
| -7.7#96 | FPI | -10.3#110 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Plaster Sports ComplexLocationSpringfield, MO
Capacity17,337
SurfaceTurf
Opened1941
Elevation1,320 ft
FAN NEWS
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