GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
New Mexico opens a 10-point favorite. Our model gives New Mexico a 74% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) UNM
Home-field edge UNM
Market lean UNM
Model projection UNM
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Central Michigan @ New Mexico
Your sims:Sims: UNM 0, CMU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Central Michigan
Central Michigan2025: 7–6 (5–3 MAC)
Lvs Northwestern34–7Lvs Toledo21–3Wat Kent State28–16Central Michigan2025: 7–6 (5–3 MAC)New Mexico
New Mexico2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)
Lvs Minnesota20–17 (OT)Wvs San Diego State23–17 (OT)Wat Air Force20–3New Mexico2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUNM 74%MarketUNM 79%
Market 5 points higher than our model
Kalshi · $1,498 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADCMU +10UNM −10
TOTALOver 46.5Under 46.5
MONEYLINECMU +310UNM −395
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Central Michigan vs New Mexico Stats ComparisonCMU vs New Mexico Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Central MichiganCMU | New MexicoUNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5#105 | PPG | 27.1#73 |
| 23.5#54 | PA/G | 22.3#46 |
| 332.2#112 | YDS/G | 357.2#90 |
| 167.1#118 | PASS/G | 204.8#92 |
| 165.1#59 | RUSH/G | 152.4#76 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| 34.1%#115 | 3RD DOWN | 39.4%#72 |
| 0.14#88 | OFF PPA | 0.16#74 |
| 0.08#32 | DEF PPA | 0.10#45 |
| 40.6%#91 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.8%#88 |
| 40.3%#51 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.5%#46 |
| 54.0% | RET PROD | 58.2% |
| 1.16#118 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25#55 |
| +5#35 | TO MARGIN | −6#108 |
| -15.1 | SP+ | 0.0 |
| -12.8#120 | FPI | -3.5#81 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
University Stadium (NM)LocationAlbuquerque, NM
Capacity39,224
SurfaceTurf
Opened1960
Elevation5,100 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Central Michigan or New Mexico?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
