GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsWIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
TROY win
88% One-score game
22% Cover TROY −16.5
54%
88% One-score game
22% Cover TROY −16.5
54%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) TROY
Home-field edge TROY
Market lean TROY
Model projection TROY
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Sam Houston @ Troy
Your sims:Sims: TROY 0, SHSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Sam Houston
Sam Houston2025: 2–10 (1–7 CUSA)
Lvs Florida International56–16Lat Middle Tennessee31–17Wvs Delaware26–23Sam Houston2025: 2–10 (1–7 CUSA)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Troy88%- Sam Houston13%
CFB Vibes ModelTROY 88%MarketTROY 88%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $6,153 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADSHSU +16.5TROY −16.5
TOTALOver 53.5Under 53.5
MONEYLINESHSU +600TROY −900
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Sam Houston vs Troy Stats ComparisonSam Houston vs Troy Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Sam HoustonSHSU | TroyTROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 17.8#127 | PPG | 23.5#95 |
| 37.8#133 | PA/G | 23.9#58 |
| 316.8#121 | YDS/G | 307.2#124 |
| 184#110 | PASS/G | 209.2#90 |
| 132.8#98 | RUSH/G | 98#131 |
| 5#117 | YDS/PLAY | 4.6#129 |
| 22.2%#136 | 3RD DOWN | 38.8%#80 |
| 0.00#132 | OFF PPA | 0.08#113 |
| 0.24#118 | DEF PPA | 0.11#50 |
| 36.3%#125 | OFF SUCCESS | 37.9%#117 |
| 47.9%#130 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.6%#47 |
| 57.7% | RET PROD | 35.3% |
| 1.25#56 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.30#40 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | +0#72 |
| -26.0 | SP+ | -8.0 |
| -18.4#136 | FPI | -7.4#95 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)LocationTroy, AL
Capacity30,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1950
Elevation508 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Sam Houston or Troy?
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