GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Kennesaw State a 64% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 1–1 since 2024 · Kennesaw State won the last meeting, 24–16 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) KENN
Home-field edge MTSU
Model projection KENN
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Kennesaw St @ Middle Tennessee
Your sims:Sims: MTSU 0, KENN 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State2026: 1–5 (0–2 CUSA)
Lat Missouri State24–21Lvs Jacksonville State27–26Lat Arkansas State17–14
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee2026: 3–3 (1–1 CUSA)
Wvs Delaware33–30Lat Kansas55–0Lat Jacksonville State23–13
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelMTSU 36%MarketMTSU 49%
Market 13 points higher than our model
Kalshi · $4 traded · as of Oct 20, 9:00 AM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee Stats ComparisonKENN vs MTSU Stats Comparison
| Kennesaw StateKENN | Middle TennesseeMTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 22.3#106 | PPG | 22.8#103 |
| 23.5#66 | PA/G | 28.3#109 |
| 367.3#86 | YDS/G | 321.5#122 |
| 223.7#78 | PASS/G | 200.7#98 |
| 143.7#88 | RUSH/G | 120.8#114 |
| 5.6#86 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#86 |
| 40.8%#72 | 3RD DOWN | 26.2%#137 |
| +2#47 | TO MARGIN | +4#22 |
| 0.10#88 | OFF PPA | 0.13#79 |
| 0.12#88 | DEF PPA | 0.22#123 |
| 44.5%#56 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.2%#112 |
| 42.5%#94 | DEF SUCCESS | 49.1%#134 |
| 6.1% | RET PROD | 32.5% |
| 1.09#130 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.26#51 |
| 1288 | ELO | 1149 |
| -9.8 | SP+ | -19.5 |
| -11.4#109 | FPI | -18.3#130 |
| -9.7 | SRS | -16.9 |
THE VENUE
Johnny "Red" Floyd StadiumLocationMurfreesboro, TN
Capacity30,788
SurfaceTurf
Opened1933
Elevation629 ft
FAN NEWS
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