GAME DAY
Week 10 · ·WKU radioHilltopper Sports Network
MTSU radioBlue Raider Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Western Kentucky a 55% chance.
SeriesWestern Kentucky leads 12–6 since 2007 · Western Kentucky won the last meeting, 42–26 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
MTSU win
45% One-score game
38%
45% One-score game
38%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) WKU
Home-field edge MTSU
Model projection WKU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee
Your sims:Sims: MTSU 0, WKU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Western Kentucky
Wat Sam Houston16–3Wvs Missouri State34–13Lat New Mexico State34–13
Middle Tennessee
Wvs Delaware33–30Lat Kansas55–0Lat Jacksonville State23–13
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee Stats ComparisonWKU vs MTSU Stats Comparison
| Western KentuckyWKU | Middle TennesseeMTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 21.3#113 | PPG | 22.8#103 |
| 30.6#117 | PA/G | 28.3#109 |
| 353#101 | YDS/G | 321.5#122 |
| 218.3#82 | PASS/G | 200.7#98 |
| 134.7#103 | RUSH/G | 120.8#115 |
| 4.9#124 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#86 |
| 40.7%#74 | 3RD DOWN | 26.2%#137 |
| 0.03#115 | OFF PPA | 0.13#80 |
| 0.13#98 | DEF PPA | 0.22#123 |
| 36.6%#129 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.2%#113 |
| 39.3%#53 | DEF SUCCESS | 49.1%#133 |
| 83.7% | RET PROD | 32.5% |
| 1.25#58 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.26#52 |
| 1269 | ELO | 1149 |
| −3#100 | TO MARGIN | +4#22 |
| -13.0 | SP+ | -19.5 |
| -11.9#110 | FPI | -18.3#130 |
| -11.2 | SRS | -16.9 |
THE VENUE
Johnny "Red" Floyd StadiumLocationMurfreesboro, TN
Capacity30,788
SurfaceTurf
Opened1933
Elevation629 ft
FAN NEWS
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