GAME DAY
Week 6 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Troy a 85% chance.
SeriesTroy leads 6–3 · Troy won the last meeting, 28–18 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TROY
Home-field edge TROY
Model projection TROY
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Southern Miss @ Troy
Your sims:Sims: TROY 0, USM 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Southern Miss
Southern Miss2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)
Lvs Western Kentucky27–16Lvs Troy28–18Lat South Alabama42–35Southern Miss2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Southern Miss vs Troy Stats ComparisonUSM vs Troy Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Southern MissUSM | TroyTROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 28.8#58 | PPG | 23.5#95 |
| 27.4#84 | PA/G | 23.9#58 |
| 401.8#54 | YDS/G | 307.2#124 |
| 266#26 | PASS/G | 209.2#90 |
| 135.8#93 | RUSH/G | 98#131 |
| 5.7#65 | YDS/PLAY | 4.6#129 |
| 39.7%#70 | 3RD DOWN | 38.8%#80 |
| 0.16#71 | OFF PPA | 0.08#113 |
| 0.12#54 | DEF PPA | 0.11#50 |
| 39.5%#107 | OFF SUCCESS | 37.9%#117 |
| 41.5%#68 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.6%#47 |
| 90.2% | RET PROD | 35.3% |
| 1.33#25 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.30#40 |
| +14#4 | TO MARGIN | +0#72 |
| -20.7 | SP+ | -8.0 |
| -5.1#87 | FPI | -7.4#95 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)LocationTroy, AL
Capacity30,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1950
Elevation508 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Southern Miss or Troy?
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MORE WEEK 6 GAMES
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