GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Fresno State a 82% chance.
SeriesColorado State leads 11–7 · Colorado State won the last meeting, 49–21 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FRES
Home-field edge FRES
Model projection FRES
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Colorado State @ Fresno State
Your sims:Sims: FRES 0, CSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Colorado State
Lat Texas State66–27Lvs Oregon State56–26Lat UTSA59–45
Fresno State
Lat San Diego State26–23Lvs Boise State38–31Wat Washington State26–6
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Colorado State vs Fresno State Stats ComparisonCSU vs Fresno State Stats Comparison
| Colorado StateCSU | Fresno StateFRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 35.7#29 | PPG | 27.6#79 |
| 43.2#138 | PA/G | 20.9#43 |
| 445.3#34 | YDS/G | 352.6#102 |
| 274.8#26 | PASS/G | 212.1#90 |
| 170.5#53 | RUSH/G | 140.4#94 |
| 6.6#23 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#70 |
| 43.5%#46 | 3RD DOWN | 36.1%#104 |
| +8#6 | TO MARGIN | +8#6 |
| 0.22#35 | OFF PPA | 0.11#85 |
| 0.29#134 | DEF PPA | 0.04#52 |
| 43.9%#63 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.0%#104 |
| 53.1%#138 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.9%#87 |
| 39.6% | RET PROD | 38.3% |
| 1.45#2 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.28#39 |
| 1155 | ELO | 1628 |
| -7.8 | SP+ | 3.7 |
| -12.6#113 | FPI | -0.7#73 |
| -7.2 | SRS | -0.8 |
THE VENUE
Valley Children's StadiumLocationFresno, CA
Capacity41,031
SurfaceTurf
Opened1980
Elevation336 ft
FAN NEWS
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