GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Texas State a 73% chance.
SeriesUtah State leads 1–0 · Utah State won the last meeting, 38–7 · 2012
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TXST
Home-field edge TXST
Model projection TXST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Utah State @ Texas State
Your sims:Sims: TXST 0, USU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Utah State
Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)
Lvs Washington State34–21Lvs Boise State25–24Wat Fresno State28–17Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Utah State vs Texas State Stats ComparisonUtah State vs Texas State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Utah StateUSU | Texas StateTXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.9#35 | PPG | 36.5#12 |
| 28.7#90 | PA/G | 29#95 |
| 409.8#40 | YDS/G | 473.5#5 |
| 246.9#48 | PASS/G | 250.8#43 |
| 162.9#62 | RUSH/G | 222.7#10 |
| 6.3#24 | YDS/PLAY | 6.7#13 |
| 34.5%#111 | 3RD DOWN | 46.0%#23 |
| 0.20#41 | OFF PPA | 0.31#10 |
| 0.20#101 | DEF PPA | 0.16#71 |
| 41.1%#83 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.8%#29 |
| 42.7%#90 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.1%#61 |
| 65.2% | RET PROD | 76.0% |
| 1.35#17 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.35#18 |
| +6#27 | TO MARGIN | −5#103 |
| -7.9 | SP+ | -2.1 |
| -6.7#92 | FPI | -4.3#84 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Bobcat Stadium (TX)LocationSan Marcos, TX
Capacity30,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1981
Elevation584 ft
FAN NEWS
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