GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Texas State opens a 12.5-point favorite. Our model gives Texas State a 79% chance.
SeriesUtah State leads 1–0 · Utah State won the last meeting, 38–7 · 2012
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: TXST 0, USU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $602 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Utah State vs Texas State Stats ComparisonUtah State vs Texas State Stats Comparison
| Utah StateUSU | Texas StateTXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 14.5#136 | PPG | 40#9 |
| 23.5#66 | PA/G | 32.2#122 |
| 310#129 | YDS/G | 562.3#1 |
| 189.8#109 | PASS/G | 258.8#40 |
| 120.2#116 | RUSH/G | 303.5#3 |
| 5#121 | YDS/PLAY | 7.2#7 |
| 37.5%#85 | 3RD DOWN | 55.4%#5 |
| 0.05#57 | DEF PPA | 0.12#88 |
| 34.5%#133 | OFF SUCCESS | 50.9%#8 |
| 39.3%#53 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.0%#112 |
| 65.2% | RET PROD | 76.0% |
| 1.39#9 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.31#28 |
| 1362 | ELO | 1567 |
| −5#120 | TO MARGIN | −5#120 |
| -0.08#133 | OFF PPA | 0.29#15 |
| -9.0 | SP+ | -0.2 |
| -7.6#96 | FPI | -0.1#70 |
| -10.7 | SRS | 7.3 |
THE VENUE
Bobcat Stadium (TX)FAN NEWS
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