GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·UAB radioBlazer Radio Network
USF radioBulls Radio Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives South Florida a 86% chance.
SeriesSouth Florida leads 3–2 since 2003 · South Florida won the last meeting, 48–18 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) USF
Home-field edge USF
Model projection USF
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
UAB @ South Florida
Your sims:Sims: USF 0, UAB 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUSF 86%MarketUSF 80%
Market 6 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $29 traded · as of Oct 20, 9:00 AM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
UAB vs South Florida Stats ComparisonUAB vs USF Stats Comparison
| UABUAB | South FloridaUSF | |
|---|---|---|
| 23.3#101 | PPG | 26.6#86 |
| 24.6#78 | PA/G | 15.1#13 |
| 339#114 | YDS/G | 325.7#119 |
| 171#123 | PASS/G | 183.9#113 |
| 168#55 | RUSH/G | 141.9#91 |
| 5.1#118 | YDS/PLAY | 5.5#97 |
| 41.9%#58 | 3RD DOWN | 40.3%#77 |
| 0.03#112 | OFF PPA | 0.14#72 |
| 0.02#42 | DEF PPA | 0.01#39 |
| 41.6%#86 | OFF SUCCESS | 47.3%#34 |
| 43.1%#101 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.4%#81 |
| 79.6% | RET PROD | 12.6% |
| 1.17#102 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.10#128 |
| 1396 | ELO | 1613 |
| +0#70 | TO MARGIN | +3#33 |
| -12.8 | SP+ | 0.6 |
| -13.8#117 | FPI | -2.2#80 |
| -12.3 | SRS | -0.7 |
THE VENUE
Raymond James StadiumLocationTampa, FL
Capacity65,828
SurfaceGrass
Opened1998
Elevation36 ft
FAN NEWS
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