GAME DAY
Week 10 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives East Carolina a 58% chance.
SeriesSouth Florida leads 9–4 · East Carolina won the last meeting, 48–28 · 2022
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) USF
Home-field edge ECU
Model projection ECU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
South Florida @ East Carolina
Your sims:Sims: ECU 0, USF 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3East Carolina
East Carolina2025: 9–4 (6–2 AAC)
Wvs Pittsburgh23–17Wat Florida Atlantic42–3Lat UTSA58–24East Carolina2025: 9–4 (6–2 AAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
South Florida vs East Carolina Stats ComparisonUSF vs ECU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| South FloridaUSF | East CarolinaECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 40.5#5 | PPG | 32.7#24 |
| 23.4#53 | PA/G | 20.1#25 |
| 487.8#3 | YDS/G | 449#19 |
| 275.6#18 | PASS/G | 272.7#21 |
| 212.2#13 | RUSH/G | 176.3#46 |
| 7#5 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#55 |
| 46.4%#20 | 3RD DOWN | 47.2%#15 |
| +5#35 | TO MARGIN | +10#11 |
| 0.30#17 | OFF PPA | 0.19#49 |
| 0.08#30 | DEF PPA | 0.05#16 |
| 46.7%#22 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.8%#29 |
| 37.9%#27 | DEF SUCCESS | 37.6%#24 |
| 12.6% | RET PROD | 13.6% |
| 1.30#38 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16#118 |
| -1.7 | SP+ | -2.3 |
| -0.9#73 | FPI | -0.6#68 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Dowdy-Ficklen StadiumLocationGreenville, NC
Capacity50,000
SurfaceGrass
Opened1963
Elevation63 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about South Florida or East Carolina?
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